The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a normal monsoon season this year, alleviating concerns about the impact of El Nino. However, experts warn that an El Nino following a La Nina year can result in significant rainfall deficits. This year’s El Nino conditions come after three consecutive La Nina years, which typically bring good rainfall during the monsoon season. Private agency Skymet Weather had predicted “below-normal” monsoon rains due to evolving El Nino conditions. Despite this, Raghu Murtugudde, a visiting professor at IIT Bombay and Emeritus Professor at University of Maryland, suggests that Eurasian precipitation has been slightly below normal, which may offset the El Nino impact and favour a stronger monsoon. The IMD predicts positive India Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions during the southwest monsoon season and lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia, both of which are considered favourable for the southwest monsoon. However, Dr Anjal Prakash, research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business, warns that 60 percent of El Nino years have seen deficient rainfall. Normal rain is crucial for India’s agricultural landscape and replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation.
