The BJP is back for a historic third term in Haryana, obstructing the Congress from breaking the BJP spell in the state even after a decade. The 90-member state assembly requires a party to touch the 46-seat majority mark to rule the state. The BJP won closely with 48 seats, while the Congress fell short at 37 seats. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) won 2 seats, while independents won 3 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party drew a blank and did not win a single seat.
Exit polls in India are infamous for being notoriously unreliable and fallible. The Haryana election results further discredited exit polls, which predicted a Congress victory in the state.
Congress’ Julana candidate Vinesh Phogat defeated BJP’s Yogesh Kumar by a margin of 6,015 votes. The Congress was banking on farmers’ dissatisfaction, wrestlers’ protests, and the distress caused by reduced post-service benefits under the Agniveer scheme to win the elections. However, its plans were foiled by the BJP which defied not only exit poll predictions, but also anti-incumbency.
The BJP’s lower-than-expected performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections created an atmosphere among Hindutva propagandists and BJP loyalists of a Hindu rashtra in danger of being contaminated by pro-Muslim agents and sentiment.
The Lok Sabha elections did not only impel voters to come out and vote in favour of the BJP, but also proved to be a much-needed reality check for the BJP. After its weak performance in the national elections, the BJP leveraged the RSS’ presence at the grassroots level in Haryana and begun to pay more attention to the rural constituencies, previously aggrieved by the passing of the farm laws, although they were later repealed.
The Congress’ narrative of appeasing to the ‘kisan, jawan, and pehelwan’ found a worthy counter from the BJP when it reduced the narrative to one which appeased only the Jat community. The Congress under Rahul Gandhi has a weak brand overall. Like Modi’s brand consists of Hindu nationalism, development and infrastructure, and crony capitalism, the Congress brand is comparatively weak and does not exist on its own. The Congress brand is entirely based on opposing the BJP. It is possible that voters were able to recognize that and sense the lack of a distinctive brand which weakened their trust in the party.
Overall, the Haryana victory is a landmark victory for the BJP since this is the only time a party has been elected to office a third consecutive time in the history of the state’s elections.
